of different views, so that their strengths and weaknesses could be debatedâregarding, say, where it would be a good place to hunt today or whether the seasons are changing.
Considered in this light, reasoning wouldnât be expected to make us good logicians, but rather, good rhetoricians. And thatâs what we are. Not only are we very good at selectively cobbling together evidence to support our own caseâaided by motivated reasoning and the ubiquitous confirmation biasâbut weâre also good at seeing the flaws in the arguments of others when they get up on top of the soap box, and slicing and dicing their claims (the so-called âdisconfirmation biasâ).
When lots of individuals blow holes in one anotherâs claims and arguments, the reasoning of the group should be better than the reasoning of the individual. But at the same time, the individualâor the individual in a self-affirming group that does not provide adequate challengesâis capable of going very wrong, because of motivated reasoning and confirmation bias. Thanks to these flaws, the sole reasoner rarely sees whatâs wrong with his or her logic. Rather, the sole reasoner becomes the equivalent of a crazy hermit in the wildernessâor, to quote the late Frank Zappa, the author of âthat tacky little pamphlet in your Daddyâs bottom drawer.â And the unchallenged group member becomes like a cult follower.
Mercierâs and Sperberâs âargumentative theory of reasonâ provides a strong case for supporting group reasoning processes like the scientific one, which are built around challenges to any one individualâs beliefs or convictions. These processes may be the only reliable check on our going vastly astray. By the same token, the theory also suggests that if you insulate yourself from belief challenge, you are leaving yourself vulnerable to the worst flaws of reasoning, without deriving any of the benefits of it.
Humans may be relatively poor reasoners in comparison to some Enlightenment ideal. But that doesnât mean every human is equally bad at reasoning. Nor does it mean that weâre all equally inflexible and unwilling to set aside our biases, or change our minds based on new evidence.
At least as it is now constituted, the theory of motivated reasoning does not posit inherent liberal-conservative differences in biased reasoning tendencies. Yet Iâve already discussed a number of motivated reasoning studiesâall relating to political or politicized beliefsâin which conservatives seemed to show more bias in favor of their preexisting views (or a stronger rejection of reality) than liberals did. And I also discussed an array of studies in which having more knowledge, or more political expertise, made conservativesâ biases worse, not better. All in all, I showed a lot of conservative wrongness, defensiveness, and overconfidence, in both public opinion studies and controlled psychology experiments.
But how far can one go with this? Itâs important to be cautious, because liberals have also been shown to engage in motivated reasoningâjust not always as much as conservatives, or not in the same way. In fact, weâll even encounter a few studies in later chapters in which liberalsâ egalitarian values appeared to make them even more biased than conservatives, at least in key contexts.
Other motivated reasoning studies, meanwhile, either donât seem to examine the difference between liberals and conservatives closely, are not designed to do so, or in some cases, find the two groups to be equally biased. And the studies often use different parameters and designs, and focus on different political issues which may excite different emotionsâwhich makes generalizing about them difficult.
Moreover, it is important to reiterate that these motivated reasoning studies only capture individualsâ one-time reactions to inconvenient
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