Republicans.â (Aaron McCright and Riley Dunlap, âThe Politicization of Climate Change and Polarization in the American Publicâs View of Global Warming, 2001â2010,â The Sociological Quarterly , 52, p. 155â194, 2011.)
You could go on like this for some time. The point is that on climate change, the more highly engaged, informed, and educated are less amenable to changing their beliefs in the face of the evidence. And this is hardly the only issue where thatâs the case.
48 the claim that President Obama is a Muslim John Sides, âWhy Do More People Think Obama is a Muslim?â The Washington Post , August 26, 2010. http://voices.washingtonpost.com/ezra-klein/2010/08/why_do_more_people_think_obama.html .
48 â death panelsâ Brendan Nyhan, âWhy the âDeath Panelâ Myth Wouldnât Die: Misinformation in the Healthcare Reform Debate,â The Forum , Volume 8, Issue 1, 2010. Available online at http://www.dartmouth.edu/~nyhan/health-care-misinformation.pdf .
49 âeducation problemâ Ben Geman, âWhite House official cites âeducation problemâ on climate,â The Hill , January 30, 2011. http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/141143-white-house-official-cites-capitol-hill-education-problem-on-climate-
49 clever way to test it Kahan et al, âThe Tragedy of the Risk-Perception Commons: Culture Conflict, Rationality Conflict, and Climate Change,â Cultural Cognition Working Paper No. 89, 2011, available online at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1871503 .
51 âI reached this pro-capital punishment decisionâ Interview with Jon Krosnick, January 6, 2011.
51 âtheir life is going to go less wellâ Interview with Dan Kahan, January 7, 2011.
52 a little bit wrong and still alive Michael Shermer, The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies, How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths , New York: Henry Holt/Times Books, 2011.
52 reasoning about reasoning all wrong Hugo Mercier and Dan Sperber, âWhy do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentative theory,â Behavioral and Brain Sciences , 2011 (34), 57â111.
52 âhands were made for walkingâ Hugo Mercier, âThe Argumentative Theory of Reasoning,â https://sites.google.com/site/hugomercier/theargumentativetheoryofreasoning .
54 liberals have also been shown to engage in motivated reasoning See for instance Geoffrey Cohen, âParty Over Policy: The Dominating Impact of Group Influence on Political Beliefs,â Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 2003, Vol. 85, No. 5, 808â822.
54 donât seem to examine Taber & Lodge, âMotivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs,â American Journal of Political Science , Vol. 50, Number 3, July 2006, pp. 755â769.
54 find the two groups to be equally biased See for instance Geoffrey Cohen, âParty Over Policy: The Dominating Impact of Group Influence on Political Beliefs,â Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 2003, Vol. 85, No. 5, 808â822.
Part Two
The âNatureâ Hypothesis: Dangerous Certainty
Chapter Three
Political Personalities
If you really donât like a scientific resultâif it injures your sense of self, or threatens the group with which you associateâthe evidence presented in the last two chapters suggests that you will exercise a disconfirmation bias. You will vigorously attack the study, seek to refute it, challenge its funding sources, and hurl any other argument that seems to disparage the finding and, perhaps, those who produced it.
If you donât believe me, go read a blog sometime.
In 2003, a fairly dramatic version of this phenomenon emerged in response to a lengthy and dense study published in the journal Psychological Bulletin , which is put out by the American Psychological Association and is one of the most influential
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