to have been done quite a while ago. Now, if I'd gone through all this trouble -- to create a highly sophisticated bacteria and to get it into reservoirs, I wouldn't have only hit Alaska and Ghawar. I'd . . . well, I'd have hit them all."
He punched a few commands into the laptop and a color-coded list replaced the map on-screen.
"Because there are thousands of oil-producing fields in the world, most people think we're pretty diversified. But actually, twenty percent of the world's oil comes from just four giant fields. Another thirty percent comes from a hundred more fields, and the last fifty percent comes from about four thousand small fields. The list you're looking at shows fields in the logical order someone would target them based on size and how easy it would be. So, as you can see, you'd start with Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, then move on to Burgan in Kuwait, then Kirkuk in Iraq, and so on. Keep in mind that all the water-injection systems that I'm aware of are unprotected -- meaning the security on them is limited. No one really anticipated this threat."
"How much oil is represented by that list?" Reynolds asked.
"About a third of the world's production and reserves."
Everyone began talking at once. The general tone hovered between skepticism and outrage, all aimed directly at Erin.
The president raised his hand again and everyone fell silent. "Who stands to gain from this?"
"What?"
"I notice Iran isn't on your list. Why not?"
Erin was suddenly aware that what he said here had the potential to ripple through the world in ways he'd never considered. If he gave the wrong answer, could he wake up to news of the bombing of Tehran and all the innocent people who lived there? "Sir, I'm a biologist. That's not really my area."
"Then make it your goddamn area," the president said. "Why isn't Iran on that list?"
"Because they don't use water injection.
They keep their reservoir pressure up with natural gas."
"Then they wouldn't be affected by the problems we're talking about."
"No, but --"
"And would you say that it's likely the shortage you're describing will cause a massive increase in the price of oil, which could potentially make them one of the wealthiest countries in the world?"
"I don't know if I'd jump to that conclusion," Erin said, finally gaining his footing again. "You know who the real beneficiaries of this would be? The Canadians. Not only do they not use a lot of water injection, but they have the second largest reserve in the world -- the vast majority of which is in the form of oil-impregnated sand that isn't at risk. These bacteria can't survive out in the elements."
He was met by silent, suspicious expressions and he began to think that in his zeal to save Tehran he'd doomed Toronto.
"Look, I don't think we should be focusing on blaming someone, I think we should be focusing on trying to limit the damage. Whoever's doing this started a while ago, but it wouldn't be quick or easy work. Maybe all the fields on my list haven't been hit yet. Protecting water injectors, once you figure out you need to, isn't going to be all that hard --"
"So your thirty percent number is a worst-case scenario?" Jack Reynolds interrupted.
Erin chewed his lower lip for a moment. In truth, thirteen months was more than enough time to hit all the reserves listed and then some, but it seemed like a good idea to get them thinking about something more productive than revenge. "That's right. Definitely worst-case." He paused, then added, "But if it did happen, I think you can expect all that production to go off-line over the next two years. You should probably try to be ready for that."
"Ready for that?" the president said, his face looking a little red in the glow of the screen. "And how the hell would you suggest we 'get ready for that,' Dr. Neal? We're talking about an entire world economy that revolves around the availability of oil -- an economy that amplifies the slightest constriction in supply or increase in
He punched a few commands into the laptop and a color-coded list replaced the map on-screen.
"Because there are thousands of oil-producing fields in the world, most people think we're pretty diversified. But actually, twenty percent of the world's oil comes from just four giant fields. Another thirty percent comes from a hundred more fields, and the last fifty percent comes from about four thousand small fields. The list you're looking at shows fields in the logical order someone would target them based on size and how easy it would be. So, as you can see, you'd start with Ghawar in Saudi Arabia, then move on to Burgan in Kuwait, then Kirkuk in Iraq, and so on. Keep in mind that all the water-injection systems that I'm aware of are unprotected -- meaning the security on them is limited. No one really anticipated this threat."
"How much oil is represented by that list?" Reynolds asked.
"About a third of the world's production and reserves."
Everyone began talking at once. The general tone hovered between skepticism and outrage, all aimed directly at Erin.
The president raised his hand again and everyone fell silent. "Who stands to gain from this?"
"What?"
"I notice Iran isn't on your list. Why not?"
Erin was suddenly aware that what he said here had the potential to ripple through the world in ways he'd never considered. If he gave the wrong answer, could he wake up to news of the bombing of Tehran and all the innocent people who lived there? "Sir, I'm a biologist. That's not really my area."
"Then make it your goddamn area," the president said. "Why isn't Iran on that list?"
"Because they don't use water injection.
They keep their reservoir pressure up with natural gas."
"Then they wouldn't be affected by the problems we're talking about."
"No, but --"
"And would you say that it's likely the shortage you're describing will cause a massive increase in the price of oil, which could potentially make them one of the wealthiest countries in the world?"
"I don't know if I'd jump to that conclusion," Erin said, finally gaining his footing again. "You know who the real beneficiaries of this would be? The Canadians. Not only do they not use a lot of water injection, but they have the second largest reserve in the world -- the vast majority of which is in the form of oil-impregnated sand that isn't at risk. These bacteria can't survive out in the elements."
He was met by silent, suspicious expressions and he began to think that in his zeal to save Tehran he'd doomed Toronto.
"Look, I don't think we should be focusing on blaming someone, I think we should be focusing on trying to limit the damage. Whoever's doing this started a while ago, but it wouldn't be quick or easy work. Maybe all the fields on my list haven't been hit yet. Protecting water injectors, once you figure out you need to, isn't going to be all that hard --"
"So your thirty percent number is a worst-case scenario?" Jack Reynolds interrupted.
Erin chewed his lower lip for a moment. In truth, thirteen months was more than enough time to hit all the reserves listed and then some, but it seemed like a good idea to get them thinking about something more productive than revenge. "That's right. Definitely worst-case." He paused, then added, "But if it did happen, I think you can expect all that production to go off-line over the next two years. You should probably try to be ready for that."
"Ready for that?" the president said, his face looking a little red in the glow of the screen. "And how the hell would you suggest we 'get ready for that,' Dr. Neal? We're talking about an entire world economy that revolves around the availability of oil -- an economy that amplifies the slightest constriction in supply or increase in
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