introduced on purpose."
Dead silence. It lasted for a good ten seconds before the president spoke. "You're saying this is a terrorist act?"
The image of Jenna in full Arab garb, complete with a belt made of dynamite, flashed across his mind. "I'm saying . . . I'm saying that it was deliberate."
"Now hold on," Reynolds said, suddenly finding himself in the uncomfortable position of not knowing the answers to the questions he was asking. "Just a few days ago, you told me in no uncertain terms that this was a natural phenomenon."
"Yeah, it never occurred to me that someone would do something like this, so I was biased toward a natural explanation. But I know now that I was trying to fit a square peg into a round hole."
"How sure are you?" the president asked. "Pretty sure. Ninety-nine percent."
Dunn turned toward Jack Reynolds. "And is there any way to corroborate this?"
Reynolds tapped the table nervously. "We can have our people look over the data, but I think everyone agrees that Dr. Neal here is the world expert by a fairly wide margin."
"Jesus Christ, Jack. We first heard about the Saudi problem, what? Over a month ago? And we're just finding out about this now?"
"Sir, I --"
The president held up his hand and turned back toward Erin. "What kind of damage are we talking about?"
"I've made some assumptions and created a simulation," Erin said, pulling a stack of folded 3-D glasses from his back pocket and sliding them to the center of the table. "Put these on please."
He tapped a few commands into the laptop and a three-dimensional map of the Ghawar reservoir came up on a screen behind him. The lights dimmed automatically and that, combined with the cardboard glasses now perched on the faces of his audience, created a scene eerily reminiscent of Dr. Strangelove.
"The purple stain you see spreading through the reservoir represents the bacteria. You'll notice that the date counter at the top started about thirteen months ago, which is when we determined the bacteria was introduced."
He paused the simulation on the current date. "So here we are now. You can see the wells that have gone down and get an idea of which are next." A tap on the ENTER button started the stain moving again until it covered the entire field.
They all just sat there staring until a pale man with slicked-back hair finally broke the silence. "Are you telling us that the rest of the Ghawar field will go down within the next four months?"
"Four months-ish," Erin said. "I don't know if it will be completely down by then, but I'm absolutely certain that there won't be a significant amount of oil being produced there."
"And just how much oil is produced at Ghawar?"
"It's by far the largest field ever discovered. It accounts for about six percent of the world's supply and ninety percent of Saudi Arabia's production."
"Let me get this straight," the president interjected. "You're telling us that in a few months, we're going to have a six percent drop in oil availability?"
"Worldwide, yes. But keep in mind that Ghawar actually accounts for more like thirteen percent of U. S. imports."
Another long silence.
"If this is true," the president started, "can we get the Saudis to ramp up production at their other fields to cover the shortfall? They've already agreed to make up for the reduction in Alaska."
Erin wasn't sure that the question was aimed at him, but no one else seemed particularly anxious to answer. "Unfortunately, Ghawar accounts for most of their useful excess production capacity. So, in a word, no."
"Then it's your opinion that we're going to see a sudden thirteen percent drop in our oil imports," the president said, clearly having a hard time getting his mind fully around the ramifications of what he was saying. "And that there's nothing we can do about it?"
Erin didn't answer.
"Dr. Neal?" Reynolds prompted when the silence became uncomfortable.
"That may be . . . well, it may be optimistic," Erin said. "As I said, this appears
Dead silence. It lasted for a good ten seconds before the president spoke. "You're saying this is a terrorist act?"
The image of Jenna in full Arab garb, complete with a belt made of dynamite, flashed across his mind. "I'm saying . . . I'm saying that it was deliberate."
"Now hold on," Reynolds said, suddenly finding himself in the uncomfortable position of not knowing the answers to the questions he was asking. "Just a few days ago, you told me in no uncertain terms that this was a natural phenomenon."
"Yeah, it never occurred to me that someone would do something like this, so I was biased toward a natural explanation. But I know now that I was trying to fit a square peg into a round hole."
"How sure are you?" the president asked. "Pretty sure. Ninety-nine percent."
Dunn turned toward Jack Reynolds. "And is there any way to corroborate this?"
Reynolds tapped the table nervously. "We can have our people look over the data, but I think everyone agrees that Dr. Neal here is the world expert by a fairly wide margin."
"Jesus Christ, Jack. We first heard about the Saudi problem, what? Over a month ago? And we're just finding out about this now?"
"Sir, I --"
The president held up his hand and turned back toward Erin. "What kind of damage are we talking about?"
"I've made some assumptions and created a simulation," Erin said, pulling a stack of folded 3-D glasses from his back pocket and sliding them to the center of the table. "Put these on please."
He tapped a few commands into the laptop and a three-dimensional map of the Ghawar reservoir came up on a screen behind him. The lights dimmed automatically and that, combined with the cardboard glasses now perched on the faces of his audience, created a scene eerily reminiscent of Dr. Strangelove.
"The purple stain you see spreading through the reservoir represents the bacteria. You'll notice that the date counter at the top started about thirteen months ago, which is when we determined the bacteria was introduced."
He paused the simulation on the current date. "So here we are now. You can see the wells that have gone down and get an idea of which are next." A tap on the ENTER button started the stain moving again until it covered the entire field.
They all just sat there staring until a pale man with slicked-back hair finally broke the silence. "Are you telling us that the rest of the Ghawar field will go down within the next four months?"
"Four months-ish," Erin said. "I don't know if it will be completely down by then, but I'm absolutely certain that there won't be a significant amount of oil being produced there."
"And just how much oil is produced at Ghawar?"
"It's by far the largest field ever discovered. It accounts for about six percent of the world's supply and ninety percent of Saudi Arabia's production."
"Let me get this straight," the president interjected. "You're telling us that in a few months, we're going to have a six percent drop in oil availability?"
"Worldwide, yes. But keep in mind that Ghawar actually accounts for more like thirteen percent of U. S. imports."
Another long silence.
"If this is true," the president started, "can we get the Saudis to ramp up production at their other fields to cover the shortfall? They've already agreed to make up for the reduction in Alaska."
Erin wasn't sure that the question was aimed at him, but no one else seemed particularly anxious to answer. "Unfortunately, Ghawar accounts for most of their useful excess production capacity. So, in a word, no."
"Then it's your opinion that we're going to see a sudden thirteen percent drop in our oil imports," the president said, clearly having a hard time getting his mind fully around the ramifications of what he was saying. "And that there's nothing we can do about it?"
Erin didn't answer.
"Dr. Neal?" Reynolds prompted when the silence became uncomfortable.
"That may be . . . well, it may be optimistic," Erin said. "As I said, this appears
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