The White Horse King: The Life of Alfred the Great by Benjamin R. Merkle Page A

Wessex, it was difficult for Alfred to interpret Guthrum’s settlement in Mercia. On one hand, this new trend among the Viking kings of settling in permanent dwellings and beginning to farm the land might signal a dwindling interest in plundering and raiding, which might result in a welcome rest from the regular Viking raids. On the other hand, a Viking army settled in Mercia left a potential raiding army permanently poised on Wessex’s northern border, capable of being reinforced and resupplied easily from the rear. This move might actually be a greater cause for alarm for Wessex. Alfred opted for this second interpretation. Clearly, the continuing existence of Wessex, the one Saxon kingdom left standing against the Danish invaders, constituted a significant threat to the Viking occupation of England.
    Alfred was now familiar enough with Guthrum’s tactics to know that another invasion could be expected at any moment, which meant that Guthrum must be be closely watched. Though the fyrds of Wessex could not be kept permanently mobilized to wait for a Viking attack, Alfred was able to move a small troop of professional soldiers, a sort of advanced guard, to the royal estate at Chippenham on the banks of the river Avon in Wiltshire. With its close proximity to the border of Mercia, Chippenham was well situated for keeping an eye on Guthrum’s troops and offered Alfred the ability to respond quickly to any suspicious Viking movements. If Guthrum began moving south again, Alfred would be ready to summon the fyrds of Wessex immediately and cut him off at the borders of Wessex.
    Even though Alfred had learned much about his Viking opponent, Guthrum had learned more. First, Guthrum was now well practiced at striking in unexpected and undefended places by moving swiftly and silently through the territories of Wessex. This had been demonstrated with vicious clarity when he had crossed Wessex from north to south without raising any alarm and attacked the unsuspecting town of Wareham on the southern coast. Second, Guthrum had learned something of the Christian calendar and how it could be used by the Vikings to predict moments of weakness in the Saxon defenses. For instance, in AD 866, Ivar and Haldan had launched their attack on unsuspecting York on All Saints’ Day, a day when the city, distracted by the celebration of the holiday, was least prepared to resist the attack.
    While Guthrum seemed to be orchestrating the settlement of Mercia, he was also industriously bringing his army back up to full strength for another attack on Wessex. Bringing in new recruits from the continent and men from the Northumbrian campaign, the Danish king was soon able to make up for the thousands of men lost off the shores of Dorset when the one hundred twenty Viking ships were lost in the storm.
    Within a few short months of leaving Exeter, Guthrum had his army fully reinforced and, despite the wintery season, drove south bent on conquest. Moving swiftly and completely unnoticed, Guthrum crossed the border of Wessex, breaking his vows of peace to Alfred at Exeter, and marched straight to Chippenham and straight toward Alfred. This time, Guthrum was not searching for a quick and easy raiding target, nor was he looking for a chance to draw the Wessex army out into open battle. This time, Guthrum aimed straight for Alfred, planning to decapitate the king in the hopes that without the powerful and unifying figure of Alfred, the kingdom would much more easily capitulate to Guthrum’s rule.
    Guthrum’s attack was timed to coincide with the holiday of Twelfth Night, January 6, taking advantage of the distraction that the festivities of the holiday provided. Twelfth Night was the culmination of the Christmas season, a season that started with solemn reflection and prayer on Christmas Day and then slowly grew in mirth and merriment during the following twelve days, until the Twelfth Night, the eve of Epiphany, when the entire season ended with a great feast