to the future president.
“Let me turn now to the reason I’m actually here today, which is to share some thoughts on the economy. I recognize that you all probably know more about this subject than I do, so I’m going to work my way though some introductory material quickly and then get straight to my point.”
I listened carefully as Simpson sped through a coherent overview ofour current precarious economic situation. He had his facts and figures correct, which gave him a leg up on most politicians.
“What, then,” he concluded, “is the greatest long-term threat to our collective hope of rebuilding American prosperity for the generations to come? The Democrats are focused on a declining manufacturing base, the export of middle-class jobs, and rising income inequality. All important issues, I admit, although I differ on the appropriate policy response. But, ultimately, all trees in the forest. Where does America’s greatest
strategic
vulnerability lie? What is it that’s the actual lifeblood of our economy?”
“Energy,” I said, abruptly understanding why I’d been invited to lunch.
“Thank you, Mr. Wallace,” Simpson said, nodding in my direction. “That’s exactly right. Energy. The
only
production input that drives every single sector of our economy. The
only
input that drives every single sector of the
global
economy. We Americans currently import more than a third of the energy we consume. And rising demand for that same energy from countries like China and India means not only that energy prices will spiral ever higher in the future but also that the countries possessing that energy will increasingly have the luxury of deciding precisely who they’re willing to sell to—and who they aren’t.”
I glanced at Narimanov, who had his eyes half shut. Simpson seemed to be working toward a variant of the argument that had been advanced against the Nord Stream pipeline—that energy dependence gives energy exporters too much political sway. I wondered again why Narimanov was here, and where Simpson was actually headed.
“Slow down a minute,” one of Walter’s more cantankerous protégés interrupted. “You’re not suggesting an Apollo program or a Manhattan Project to make us energy independent, are you? Because we can vote for Al Gore if we want that. Jack taxes even higher, keep domestic growth in the toilet, and all walk to work in the snow while a bunch of Poindexters at some government base in Florida or New Mexico flush trillions down the toilet on solar bicycles.”
I’d half warmed to Simpson, and hoped he’d point out that both the Apollo program and the Manhattan Project had been resounding successes.
“Never,” Simpson said vehemently, disappointing me. “I’ve already told you my view of government-sponsored initiatives. The marketswill cope just fine if oil and gas prices increase smoothly through time. But
only
if the markets are given a chance to work freely. And therein lies the critical rub—of the top fifteen energy-exporting countries in the world, exactly two treat hydrocarbons as a free-market good. The other thirteen—a group that includes Iran, Venezuela, Angola, and Nigeria—have all demonstrated their willingness to use their energy resources as a political weapon. So I ask you gentlemen: What happens when one or more of these countries attacks our economy by not selling us their energy? Or, more important, how should we position ourselves in anticipation?”
Three or four people tried to answer simultaneously, their replies uniformly skeptical in tone. Walter rapped his glass with the butter knife again, hard, and everyone fell silent.
“A little more decorum, please, gentlemen,” he commanded sharply. “I’d like to hear from Mark first.” He turned to face me. “How about it? Do you buy the senator’s scenario?”
“Personally,” I said, leaning forward, “as an American and a father, my biggest economic fear for the next generation is runaway
“Let me turn now to the reason I’m actually here today, which is to share some thoughts on the economy. I recognize that you all probably know more about this subject than I do, so I’m going to work my way though some introductory material quickly and then get straight to my point.”
I listened carefully as Simpson sped through a coherent overview ofour current precarious economic situation. He had his facts and figures correct, which gave him a leg up on most politicians.
“What, then,” he concluded, “is the greatest long-term threat to our collective hope of rebuilding American prosperity for the generations to come? The Democrats are focused on a declining manufacturing base, the export of middle-class jobs, and rising income inequality. All important issues, I admit, although I differ on the appropriate policy response. But, ultimately, all trees in the forest. Where does America’s greatest
strategic
vulnerability lie? What is it that’s the actual lifeblood of our economy?”
“Energy,” I said, abruptly understanding why I’d been invited to lunch.
“Thank you, Mr. Wallace,” Simpson said, nodding in my direction. “That’s exactly right. Energy. The
only
production input that drives every single sector of our economy. The
only
input that drives every single sector of the
global
economy. We Americans currently import more than a third of the energy we consume. And rising demand for that same energy from countries like China and India means not only that energy prices will spiral ever higher in the future but also that the countries possessing that energy will increasingly have the luxury of deciding precisely who they’re willing to sell to—and who they aren’t.”
I glanced at Narimanov, who had his eyes half shut. Simpson seemed to be working toward a variant of the argument that had been advanced against the Nord Stream pipeline—that energy dependence gives energy exporters too much political sway. I wondered again why Narimanov was here, and where Simpson was actually headed.
“Slow down a minute,” one of Walter’s more cantankerous protégés interrupted. “You’re not suggesting an Apollo program or a Manhattan Project to make us energy independent, are you? Because we can vote for Al Gore if we want that. Jack taxes even higher, keep domestic growth in the toilet, and all walk to work in the snow while a bunch of Poindexters at some government base in Florida or New Mexico flush trillions down the toilet on solar bicycles.”
I’d half warmed to Simpson, and hoped he’d point out that both the Apollo program and the Manhattan Project had been resounding successes.
“Never,” Simpson said vehemently, disappointing me. “I’ve already told you my view of government-sponsored initiatives. The marketswill cope just fine if oil and gas prices increase smoothly through time. But
only
if the markets are given a chance to work freely. And therein lies the critical rub—of the top fifteen energy-exporting countries in the world, exactly two treat hydrocarbons as a free-market good. The other thirteen—a group that includes Iran, Venezuela, Angola, and Nigeria—have all demonstrated their willingness to use their energy resources as a political weapon. So I ask you gentlemen: What happens when one or more of these countries attacks our economy by not selling us their energy? Or, more important, how should we position ourselves in anticipation?”
Three or four people tried to answer simultaneously, their replies uniformly skeptical in tone. Walter rapped his glass with the butter knife again, hard, and everyone fell silent.
“A little more decorum, please, gentlemen,” he commanded sharply. “I’d like to hear from Mark first.” He turned to face me. “How about it? Do you buy the senator’s scenario?”
“Personally,” I said, leaning forward, “as an American and a father, my biggest economic fear for the next generation is runaway
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