either case, their fleet will sortie from Pearl, the only difference being a time factor of several weeks if they must first make a forward move from the West Coast and then stop at Pearl Harbor to refuel and refit before moving on.
“Our application of pressure upon the Philippines, in short an invasion, will force the Americans to react, at least that is what we assume.”
“And what we do know from their own Orange Plans,” one of the admirals interjected. “They believe we will attack, and their action plan is to bring full forces to bear and relieve the garrison in less than three months, in so doing, forcing battle with our fleet and destroying it.”
Fuchida was surprised that this revelation about detailed knowledge of Plan Orange was being openly spoken about even within the confines of this room in the Staff College. “Their own version of Kantai Kessen” Genda said quietly. Fuchida caught the irony of what Genda had just said; he was not sure if the others had. “The Americans will be forced to advance through the Central Pacific, securing bases as they advance for the final jump to the Philippines. The root of our plan is to concede the opening moves, to give back, to fall back with the main battle fleet staying within the safety of home waters. Engagements will be fought by light attack forces of destroyers and submarines. Our entire doctrine of submarine warfare is based around this, to go after the enemy’s main battle fleet, to ignore his logistical support.”
“Commander Genda, if you are going to raise that point again about submarines,” came an objection from the back of the room, “please spare us. In the time allotted in this great campaign, our submarines will only be able to fight with the torpedoes they have on board. They are too slow to race back to their bases for a quick resupply of arms. Their role is to get directly in front of the enemy fleet, engage, and communicate the enemy location. If all twenty torpedoes on board a submarine are fired and but one enemy cruiser sunk, or a battleship crippled, that is far more to the advantage of the moment, to the ultimate battle, than harassing tramp steamers far to the rear.” Genda nodded as if apologizing.
“That is not my point today,” he said, his voice almost humble.
“The Kantai Kessen plan,” came another voice, “is predicated upon our strengths and weaknesses. As the Americans advance through the Marshalls, their only real route of approach, our land-based aircraft will weaken them further, whittling down their strength so that by the time the main line of battle engagement occurs, the numbers will be even, our men and ships rested and ready, the enemy worn and depleted. It will be another Tsushima, and it will end the war in one blow.” Genda sighed and shook his head.
“Please hear my theories. You agreed to attend for that purpose.”
There were exchanged looks, one of the admirals nodding in agreement. “Go ahead.”
“I maintain that two factors have rendered the Kantai Kessen plan obsolete and thus require a complete rethinking of our strategy in the Pacific if war should ever occur.” He looked around the room.
‘‘When first conceptualized, the battleship was indeed the main strike force of any fleet. Its striking power is still the most deadly at close range, its mere existence, as the American theorist Mahan said, a projection of power in and of itself. But let me not open with what I suspect you think I will say of battleships versus other technologies. Rather, its range has changed. When the Russians steamed from the Baltic under our guns at Tsushima, their old coal-fired reciprocating engines were all but worn out. The ships of but thirty years past required constant and difficult maintenance, nearby bases, and, in truth, had a battle range of only a few thousand miles, with their captains always keeping a careful eye as to the nearest coaling stations.
“That was part of our original plan. Our
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