Isaac's Storm by Erik Larson

Delusion
    INJANUARY1900,aself-styledweatherprophet,Prof.AndrewJacksonDeVoeofChattanooga,Tennessee,issuedalong-rangeforecastfortheyearinhisLadies'BirthdayAlmanac.HepredictedthatSeptemberwouldbehotanddrythroughoutthenorthernstates."Onthe9th,"hewrote,"agreatcyclonewillformovertheGulfofMexicoandmoveuptheAtlanticcoast,causingveryheavyrainsfromFloridatoMainefrom10thto12th."
    ItwasthekindofprophecyIsaacClineloathed.Hewasascientist.Hebelievedheunderstoodweatherinwaysothersdidnot.Hedidnotknowtherewassuchathingasthejetstream,orthateasterlywavesmarchedfromthecoastofWestAfricaeverysummer,orthatamassiveflowwithintheAtlanticOceanferriedheataroundtheglobe.NorhadheheardofaphenomenoncalledElNino.Butforhistime,hekneweverything.Orthoughthedid.
    OnJuly15,1891,theGalvestonNewspublishedanarticleIsaacwroteonhurricanes.Itisatroublesomedocument,foritabradesthebodyofconvenienttruththathasaccumulatedoverthelastcenturyregardingIsaac'sroleinpreparingGalvestonforthehurricaneof1900.IttellsworldsaboutwhatIsaacmusthavebeenthinkingthatSaturdaymorningandabouthowaccuratelyheappraisedthesignsofapproachingdanger.
    Isaacwasonlytwenty-nine,butthearticlereadasifitwerewrittenbyamucholderman.ClearlyIsaacalreadyconsideredhimselfaweathersage.HewrotethearticleinresponsetoatropicalstormthattendaysearlierhadcomeashorenearMatagordaabout120milessouthwestofGalvestonalongthedownwardarcoftheTexasGulfCoast.Hubrisinfusedthetextjustasitinfusedtheage.Hewrotewithabsolutecertaintyaboutaphenomenonnoonereallyunderstood.Hecalledthestorm"anexcellenttype"ofcyclone.
    Heexplainedfirsthowtheearth'srotation,theequatorialtrades,andthemidlatitudewesterliescombinedtogivethestormaparabolictrackthatbeganneartheequator,arcedtowardthenorthwest,thencurvedbacktowardthenortheast.Thislastturn"nearlyalways"occurredbetweenthe75thand85thmeridiansoflongitude,hewrote.(The85thmeridianpassesthroughHavana,the75ththroughtheBahamas.)Thus,heargued,hurricanescouldnotasarulestrikeTexas.Tobuttressthisobservationhenotedthatduringthetwoprecedingdecades,sometwentyWestIndieshurricaneshadcrossedthesoutherncoastoftheUnitedStates,butonlytwohadactuallyreachedTexas."ThecoastofTexasisaccordingtothegenerallawsofthemotionoftheatmosphereexemptfromWestIndiahurricanesandthetwowhichhavereacheditfollowedanabnormalpathwhichcanonlybeattributedtocausesknowninmeteorologyasaccidental."
    Thearticleexudesanunmistakablescentofboosterismreminiscentoftheimmigrantcome-onspublishedbytherailroads.ClearlyheunderstoodhowmuchwasatstakeintheracebetweenGalvestonandHouston,andthatGalveston'spromoterswouldnotbepleasedtoreadthatthecitylayinharm'sway.Hearguedthatifanythingthecoastwas"muchlesssusceptible"tohostileweather."Nogreaterdamagemaybeexpectedherefrommeteorologicaldisturbancesthaninanyotherportionsofthecountry."Infact,hewrote,the"liabilityofloss"wasmuchlower.
    Whenstormsdidbreaktherules,heargued,theytendedtobeweakcreatures."ThedamagefromthestormofJuly5,1891,aggregatedlessthan$2,000,andyetwasofmuchgreaterintensitythantheaverageofthesestorms;andinfactnodamageworthyofnoticehasbeenexperi-encedalongtheTexascoastfromanyofthesestormsexceptthoseof1875and1886andineachofthesetwocasesthelossofpropertyaggre-gatedlessthanthatwhichoftenresultsfromasingletornadointhecentralstates."
    ThesetwoexceptionswerehurricanesthatstruckthetownofIndianola,aprosperousport150milessouthwestofGalvestononMatagordaBay.ByIsaac'sanalysis,thetwohurricaneswereaccidents.Atmosphericfreaks.ButIsaacfailedtograsp,ordeliberatelyignored,thetruesignificanceofthehurricanes,andwhattheydidtoIndianola.Hefocusedonpropertydamage."ThesingletornadowhichstruckLouisville,Ky.,March27,1890,destroyedpropertyofgreatervaluethantheaggregateofallthepropertywhichhasbeendestroyedbywindandwateralongtheTexascoastduringthepasttwentyyears."
    Isaachadtohaverecognizedthemisleadingimpressionthisargumentwouldconjureinreaders'minds,unlessofcoursehesimplydidnotknowwhatreallyhappenedinIndianoladuringthosetwostorms.Fornowheredoeshementionlostlives.
    THEFIRSTSTORMstruckIndianolaonSeptember16,1875.Gale-forcewindshadcomeashorethepreviousdayandgainedvelocitythroughoutthenight.By5:00P.M.onthesixteenththewindwasblowingateighty-twomilesanhour.Thewindcontinuedtostrengthenuntilbymidnight,accordingtoSgt.C.A.Smith,theSignalCorpsobserveronduty,"itmusthavebeenfully100milesanhour."
    ThestormraisedanimmensedomeofwaterandshoveditthroughIndianola,pushingthewatersoftheGulfandMatagordaBayinland"untilfor20milesthebackcountryofprairiewasanopensea."Residentsfledtheirhomesinboatsandgatheredinthetown'sstrongestbuildings.Shortlyaftermidnight,Smithreported,thetidechanged.Thesurvivorsbelievedtheworstwasover."Thisevidenceofabatementwashailedwithshoutsofjoy,andwasconfirmedinafewminutesbytheactionofthewind,whichgraduallybackedtothenorthandnorthwest."
    Theirjoywaspremature.Thewindagainbeganshovelingwater,thistimebacktowardMatagordaBay,andcreatedan"ebbsurge,"amesoscaleversionofwhathappensonanybeachwhenwaterbroughtashorebyawaverushesbackouttosea,undermininganythinginitsway."Thetidenowsweptouttowardthebaywithterrificforce,thewindhavingbutslightlyabated,anditwasatthistimethatthegreatestdestructiontolifeandpropertyoccurred.Thebuildingsremaininghadbeensoloosenedandrackedbynortheastwindandtidethatthemomentthetremendousforcewaschangedinacross-directiondozensofthemtoppledinruinsandweresweptintothebay."
    TheinitialstormsurgehadpouredintoMatagordaBayoverthecourseofeighteenhours.Itexitedinsix.
    Thedevastationwasstunning."Fullythree-fourthsofallthebuildingshadentirelydisappearedfromthescene,andofthoseremaining,alargepartwereinutterruins,"Smithwrote."Manyofthoseremaininghadbeensweptfromtheiroriginalfoundation