television off in disgust. Emma was standing beside him, a puzzled look on her face.
“They don’t seem very worried, Professor Simmons. How come?”
“They don’t know the entire story.”
“Why not?”
He shrugged. “I imagine both governments are keeping things under wraps. They don’t want people to panic.”
“Should we?” She looked worried.
He took a long breath and exhaled. “Not yet, but I’m concerned. From what I saw on the CDC website, this is extremely serious. It’s just a matter of time before there are more cases.”
“How does it spread?”
Such a simple question with such a long answer.
He decided to try and explain.
“It starts with the spores. Think of them as little seeds that are hard to kill and easily spread. When the bacteria is stressed because its environment isn’t hospitable enough, it creates spores. Conversely, when the spores find a fertile environment—in this case, a nice shiny large intestine, they germinate and create bacteria which then reproduce like crazy.
“Don’t worry about the math but here’s a simple example. If each infected person, infects one person every day. On the first day, one person is infected. On the second day, two people are infected—the first person and the new one. On the third day, four people are infected. On the fourth day, eight people…and so on. The number of infected people gets large fairly quickly.”
She didn’t appear to be impressed by the numbers.
“Think about it like this, if I change the infection rate so each infected person infects five new people per day, on the fifth day more than twelve hundred people would be infected—and so on. It grows exponentially. That’s what happens. Once an outbreak starts, it builds momentum until something stops it…thousands, even millions of people can become infected in a relatively short period.”
“What can stop it?” she asked.
“Drugs—antibiotics, if it’s a bacteria. Antivirals, if it’s a virus. A mutation that somehow limits its ability to spread might also stop it.”
“Anything else?”
He frowned. “Death—if there aren’t any more hosts to infect, that would stop it.”
The scared look on her face told him she got his point.
He reached into his pocket for his phone. “I’m going to try Mei again.” The display was dark. “Damn, my battery is dead. Do you have a charger?”
She looked at his phone. “Not for that type of phone. It looks pretty old. Maybe you should get a new one.”
Sure, but not right now. “Can I borrow yours?”
She handed it to him. He dialed Mei’s number from memory, surprised he still remembered it.
Nothing. The call didn’t even connect. Damn it.
“No luck?”
He shook his head.
“Why don’t you try sending her an email?”
“I don’t know her address.”
“I’ll bet it’s on the hospital’s website.”
She was right and five minutes later showed him how to send an email from her phone. “Why don’t you give her my phone number. If she gets the email while you’re still here, she can call.” He added her phone number at the bottom of the email.
He was about to press send when he stopped and scrolled to the bottom of the message and typed:
Please be careful. Miss you—love, Tony.
His finger hovered over the delete key. Love was too strong. He deleted it.
Please be careful. Miss you—xoxo, Tony.
He pressed send before he got cold feet and handed the phone back to Emma.
“What are you going to do now, Professor Simmons?”
“Call Mary at the university.” He held his hand out and chuckled. “Can I borrow your phone again?”
She rolled her eyes and handed it back to him. “I’ll get the charger. Somehow I think you’re going to use up all my battery.”
13
Surprise
March 26th, 20h25 GMT : 31st Street, Washington D.C.
G ong entered the restaurant , a small Italian bistro, and looked around. It seated about forty people and was half-full. A table by the window was empty. He
“They don’t seem very worried, Professor Simmons. How come?”
“They don’t know the entire story.”
“Why not?”
He shrugged. “I imagine both governments are keeping things under wraps. They don’t want people to panic.”
“Should we?” She looked worried.
He took a long breath and exhaled. “Not yet, but I’m concerned. From what I saw on the CDC website, this is extremely serious. It’s just a matter of time before there are more cases.”
“How does it spread?”
Such a simple question with such a long answer.
He decided to try and explain.
“It starts with the spores. Think of them as little seeds that are hard to kill and easily spread. When the bacteria is stressed because its environment isn’t hospitable enough, it creates spores. Conversely, when the spores find a fertile environment—in this case, a nice shiny large intestine, they germinate and create bacteria which then reproduce like crazy.
“Don’t worry about the math but here’s a simple example. If each infected person, infects one person every day. On the first day, one person is infected. On the second day, two people are infected—the first person and the new one. On the third day, four people are infected. On the fourth day, eight people…and so on. The number of infected people gets large fairly quickly.”
She didn’t appear to be impressed by the numbers.
“Think about it like this, if I change the infection rate so each infected person infects five new people per day, on the fifth day more than twelve hundred people would be infected—and so on. It grows exponentially. That’s what happens. Once an outbreak starts, it builds momentum until something stops it…thousands, even millions of people can become infected in a relatively short period.”
“What can stop it?” she asked.
“Drugs—antibiotics, if it’s a bacteria. Antivirals, if it’s a virus. A mutation that somehow limits its ability to spread might also stop it.”
“Anything else?”
He frowned. “Death—if there aren’t any more hosts to infect, that would stop it.”
The scared look on her face told him she got his point.
He reached into his pocket for his phone. “I’m going to try Mei again.” The display was dark. “Damn, my battery is dead. Do you have a charger?”
She looked at his phone. “Not for that type of phone. It looks pretty old. Maybe you should get a new one.”
Sure, but not right now. “Can I borrow yours?”
She handed it to him. He dialed Mei’s number from memory, surprised he still remembered it.
Nothing. The call didn’t even connect. Damn it.
“No luck?”
He shook his head.
“Why don’t you try sending her an email?”
“I don’t know her address.”
“I’ll bet it’s on the hospital’s website.”
She was right and five minutes later showed him how to send an email from her phone. “Why don’t you give her my phone number. If she gets the email while you’re still here, she can call.” He added her phone number at the bottom of the email.
He was about to press send when he stopped and scrolled to the bottom of the message and typed:
Please be careful. Miss you—love, Tony.
His finger hovered over the delete key. Love was too strong. He deleted it.
Please be careful. Miss you—xoxo, Tony.
He pressed send before he got cold feet and handed the phone back to Emma.
“What are you going to do now, Professor Simmons?”
“Call Mary at the university.” He held his hand out and chuckled. “Can I borrow your phone again?”
She rolled her eyes and handed it back to him. “I’ll get the charger. Somehow I think you’re going to use up all my battery.”
13
Surprise
March 26th, 20h25 GMT : 31st Street, Washington D.C.
G ong entered the restaurant , a small Italian bistro, and looked around. It seated about forty people and was half-full. A table by the window was empty. He
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