The Fifth Season by Kerry B. Collison Page A

breath before adding, ‘and communication traffic between Iran, Iraq and even Libya has more than trebled with Indonesia over the past six months.’
    â€˜And what if he suddenly drops dead, where would we be then? Would this resolve the problem?’ the President asked. Even he had been surprised at the Indonesian leader’s longevity.
    â€˜This would depend on the military, and their choice or acceptance of whoever succeeds Suhapto.’
    â€˜And this would be?’ The President asked, annoyed with his limited knowledge of those who might be considered candidates for the powerful position. It was difficult enough keeping up with the frequent leadership changes generated by political instability in Third World countries.
    â€˜Suhapto has been extremely clever. Although his current Vice President, General Sulistio has considerable support from within the army, his popularity will most likely cost him the position. There is no nominated successor, nor is it likely that there would be any challenge to his leadership while he is still alive. It’s obvious that he intends remaining at the helm until he dies. Apart from the fact that he believes he is king and deserves to continue, he is discerning enough to realize that the incredible fortunes his family’s acquired would be at risk should he relinquish power.’
    â€˜And our preferred successor, is he still a viable option?’
    â€˜Since our last discussions Mr. President, we have received assurances from General Winarko. Fortunately, we now have two candidates. Both are very pro-American, well educated, and both appear opposed to any emergence of Moslem fundamentalism or moves towards providing the ulamas with any majority representation in government. Whatever happens, the military will continue to dominate the leadership, and government for some years to come.’
    â€˜And our proposed strategy?’ he asked, knowing that whatever scheme his advisers had concocted, it would have its weaknesses, as he had discovered with past forays when his government had intervened in other countries’ power struggles.
    The Defense Secretary stepped in, taking control once again.
    â€˜The Indonesian economy is on the brink of collapse. We have the ideal opportunity to kill two birds with one stone, so to speak.’ Cohen coughed, his throat the victim of in-depth discussions throughout the night in preparation for this morning’s presentation. ‘We could precipitate a change in government leadership, or at least provide the opportunity by refusing to support any further funding of loans to Indonesia through the IMF and World Bank. As he won’t step down, we could propose having the IMF insist that Suhapto unwind the cartels and monopolies he has given to family and friends, and present his government with a number of initiatives which would quickly erode his support both from the people, and the business community.’
    The Defence Secretary stopped, coughed again several times, apologized, then cleared his throat before continuing.
    â€˜It will be the International Monetary Fund and World Bank insisting that changes to the existing financial systems be implemented, and not the United States. We obviously have the ability to direct the IMF and the World Bank due to our substantial positions in both of those organizations.
    It is most unlikely that the other member nations will balk, as they too recognize that there must be some fundamental changes in Indonesia’s economy if it is to have any realistic chance to repay their current debts. We’ve estimated that the interest alone accumulating on both the government and private sector debt is in excess of one hundred million dollars, a week.
    Apart from satisfying our own political agenda in relation to Indonesia, it would be in American interests for the IMF to press for the country’s leadership to initiate responsible steps to resolve their problems before