Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future by Martin Ford Page B
Authors: Martin Ford
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would travel more than 11 million miles. Five minutes or so at that speed would get you to Mars. That, in a nutshell, is where information technology stands today, relative to when the first primitive integrated circuits started plodding along in the late 1950s.
As someone who has worked in software development for more than twenty-five years, I’ve had a front-row seat when it comes to observing that extraordinary acceleration in computing power. I’ve also seen at close hand the tremendous progress made in software design, and in the tools that make programmers more productive. And, as a small business owner, I’ve watched as technology has transformed the way I run my business—in particular, how it has dramatically reduced the need to hire employees to perform many of the routine tasks that have always been essential to the operation of any business.
In 2008, as the global financial crisis unfolded, I began to give serious thought to the implications of that consistent doubling in computational power and, especially, to the likelihood that it would dramatically transform the job market and overall economy in coming years and decades. The result was my first book, The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future, published in 2009.
In that book, even as I wrote about the importance of accelerating technology, I underestimated just how rapidly things would in fact move forward. For example, I noted that auto manufacturers were working on collision avoidance systems to help prevent accidents, and I suggested that “over time these systems could evolve into technology capable of driving the car autonomously.” Well, it turned out that “over time” wasn’t much time at all! Within a year of the book’s publication, Google introduced a fully automated car capable of driving in traffic. And since then, three states—Nevada, California, and Florida—have passed laws allowing self-driving vehicles to share the road on a limited basis.
I also wrote about progress being made in the field of artificial intelligence. At the time, the story of IBM’s “Deep Blue” computer and how it had defeated world chess champion Garry Kasparov in 1997, was perhaps the most impressive demonstration of AI in action. Once again, I was taken by surprise when IBM introduced Deep Blue’s successor, Watson—a machine that took on a far more difficult challenge: the television game show Jeopardy! Chess is a game with rigidly defined rules; it is the sort of thing we might expect a computer to be good at. Jeopardy! is something else entirely: a game that draws on an almost limitless body of knowledge and requires a sophisticated ability to parse language, including even jokes and puns. Watson’s success at Jeopardy! is not only impressive, it is highly practical, and in fact, IBM is already positioning Watson to play a significant role in fields like medicine and customer service.
It’s a good bet that nearly all of us will be surprised by the progress that occurs in the coming years and decades. Those surprises won’t be confined to the nature of the technical advances themselves: the impact that accelerating progress has on the job market and the overall economy is poised to defy much of the conventional wisdom about how technology and economics intertwine.
One widely held belief that is certain to be challenged is the assumption that automation is primarily a threat to workers who have little education and lower-skill levels. That assumption emerges from the fact that such jobs tend to be routine and repetitive. Before you get too comfortable with that idea, however, consider just how fast the frontier is moving. At one time, a “routine” occupation would probably have implied standing on an assembly line. The reality today is far different. While lower-skill occupations will no doubt continue to be affected, a great many college-educated, white-collar workers are going to discover
As someone who has worked in software development for more than twenty-five years, I’ve had a front-row seat when it comes to observing that extraordinary acceleration in computing power. I’ve also seen at close hand the tremendous progress made in software design, and in the tools that make programmers more productive. And, as a small business owner, I’ve watched as technology has transformed the way I run my business—in particular, how it has dramatically reduced the need to hire employees to perform many of the routine tasks that have always been essential to the operation of any business.
In 2008, as the global financial crisis unfolded, I began to give serious thought to the implications of that consistent doubling in computational power and, especially, to the likelihood that it would dramatically transform the job market and overall economy in coming years and decades. The result was my first book, The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future, published in 2009.
In that book, even as I wrote about the importance of accelerating technology, I underestimated just how rapidly things would in fact move forward. For example, I noted that auto manufacturers were working on collision avoidance systems to help prevent accidents, and I suggested that “over time these systems could evolve into technology capable of driving the car autonomously.” Well, it turned out that “over time” wasn’t much time at all! Within a year of the book’s publication, Google introduced a fully automated car capable of driving in traffic. And since then, three states—Nevada, California, and Florida—have passed laws allowing self-driving vehicles to share the road on a limited basis.
I also wrote about progress being made in the field of artificial intelligence. At the time, the story of IBM’s “Deep Blue” computer and how it had defeated world chess champion Garry Kasparov in 1997, was perhaps the most impressive demonstration of AI in action. Once again, I was taken by surprise when IBM introduced Deep Blue’s successor, Watson—a machine that took on a far more difficult challenge: the television game show Jeopardy! Chess is a game with rigidly defined rules; it is the sort of thing we might expect a computer to be good at. Jeopardy! is something else entirely: a game that draws on an almost limitless body of knowledge and requires a sophisticated ability to parse language, including even jokes and puns. Watson’s success at Jeopardy! is not only impressive, it is highly practical, and in fact, IBM is already positioning Watson to play a significant role in fields like medicine and customer service.
It’s a good bet that nearly all of us will be surprised by the progress that occurs in the coming years and decades. Those surprises won’t be confined to the nature of the technical advances themselves: the impact that accelerating progress has on the job market and the overall economy is poised to defy much of the conventional wisdom about how technology and economics intertwine.
One widely held belief that is certain to be challenged is the assumption that automation is primarily a threat to workers who have little education and lower-skill levels. That assumption emerges from the fact that such jobs tend to be routine and repetitive. Before you get too comfortable with that idea, however, consider just how fast the frontier is moving. At one time, a “routine” occupation would probably have implied standing on an assembly line. The reality today is far different. While lower-skill occupations will no doubt continue to be affected, a great many college-educated, white-collar workers are going to discover
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