question about that, the [Maple Leaf angle] pulled [advanced statistics] into the spotlight,â said Tyler Dellow, a Toronto-based lawyer and blogger (his blog can be found at www.mc79hockey.com) who has emerged as one of the foremost authorities on the use of analytics in hockey. âThe Leafs are a big deal and Toronto is the centre of the [hockey and hockey media] universe. They raised the profile of the debate to a level that couldnât have happened anywhere else.â
The mercurial Maple Leafs, meanwhile, cooperated by providing a dramatic, season-long script. They went 11â6 in their first 17 games. Maple Leaf general manager Dave Nonis, speaking at a sports business management conference at that point in the schedule, made a remark along the lines of having had teams in the past that outshot their opponents and lost, but now the Leafsâ Corsiâin his wordââsucks,â yet the team was winning.
For many in the mainstream media who either didnât like the creeping presence of #fancystats or perhaps just didnât like their zealous proponents, it was open season on the newfangled numbers. As the season wore on, the Leafs certainly looked like a playoff team. With less than a month to go, they had 80 points in 68 games. They sat third in the Eastern Conference and ninth overall in the 30-team NHL.
Critics of #fancystats were giddy with delight. They started doing their touchdown dance at the 10-yard line. We all know what happened next.
Incredibly, the Leafs lost eight straight games in regulation time, and then briefly stopped the bleeding with a pair of wins, before closing out the regular season with another four straight losses in regulation. They lost 12 of their final 14, all in regulation time, falling from third in the Eastern Conference to 12th in the span of less than a month. The Leafsâ playoff hopes were incinerated into a mushroom cloud.
It was one of the most epic collapses in NHL history. It was also taken as vindication and massive victory for the #fancystats gang.
âAs a person with some investment in seeing hockey analytics become more widely accepted, watching the Leafs collapse in slow motion after a season of taunting from the more traditional corners of the game was exceedingly gratifying,â Dellow said. âAs a fan of irony, it might have been even better.â
Dellow said the Leafs were exceedingly fortunate to have piled up 80 points in their first 68 games; still, it was reasonable to expect they would have played well enough in the remaining 14 games to make the playoffs. That they didnât, Dellow said, was as much bad luck as anything else.
âThey died as they livedâon the bounces,â Dellow said. âWhile the numbers guys were vindicated, in that weâd correctly identified the Leafs as a team that wouldnât make the playoffs, it also served as a reminder that you canât say
when
the luck will run out, just that it will.â
It mattered little that similar #fancystats forecasts of doom and gloom for the 2013â14 Colorado Avalanche never came to pass, that the Avalanche posted terrible Corsi, Fenwick and PDO numbers but dodged all the bullets and still finished with 112 points, second in the powerful Western Conference, third in the entire league. In advanced stats, as in any sport, you win some, you lose some. Some victories, though, end up having a greater impact than just another two points in the standings. Torontoâs collapse, the fulfilment of the Leafsâ #fancystats prophecy, was the analytics equivalent of a franchise-defining, we-walk-together-forever, last-second win for the ages.
The truth about advanced stats in hockey is that theyâre not really all that advanced. (This from the guy who had to beg his way out of a Grade 12 math exam).
Advanced is more a relative term, given that goals, assists, points, penalty minutes and, more recently, plus-minus, have always been the
The mercurial Maple Leafs, meanwhile, cooperated by providing a dramatic, season-long script. They went 11â6 in their first 17 games. Maple Leaf general manager Dave Nonis, speaking at a sports business management conference at that point in the schedule, made a remark along the lines of having had teams in the past that outshot their opponents and lost, but now the Leafsâ Corsiâin his wordââsucks,â yet the team was winning.
For many in the mainstream media who either didnât like the creeping presence of #fancystats or perhaps just didnât like their zealous proponents, it was open season on the newfangled numbers. As the season wore on, the Leafs certainly looked like a playoff team. With less than a month to go, they had 80 points in 68 games. They sat third in the Eastern Conference and ninth overall in the 30-team NHL.
Critics of #fancystats were giddy with delight. They started doing their touchdown dance at the 10-yard line. We all know what happened next.
Incredibly, the Leafs lost eight straight games in regulation time, and then briefly stopped the bleeding with a pair of wins, before closing out the regular season with another four straight losses in regulation. They lost 12 of their final 14, all in regulation time, falling from third in the Eastern Conference to 12th in the span of less than a month. The Leafsâ playoff hopes were incinerated into a mushroom cloud.
It was one of the most epic collapses in NHL history. It was also taken as vindication and massive victory for the #fancystats gang.
âAs a person with some investment in seeing hockey analytics become more widely accepted, watching the Leafs collapse in slow motion after a season of taunting from the more traditional corners of the game was exceedingly gratifying,â Dellow said. âAs a fan of irony, it might have been even better.â
Dellow said the Leafs were exceedingly fortunate to have piled up 80 points in their first 68 games; still, it was reasonable to expect they would have played well enough in the remaining 14 games to make the playoffs. That they didnât, Dellow said, was as much bad luck as anything else.
âThey died as they livedâon the bounces,â Dellow said. âWhile the numbers guys were vindicated, in that weâd correctly identified the Leafs as a team that wouldnât make the playoffs, it also served as a reminder that you canât say
when
the luck will run out, just that it will.â
It mattered little that similar #fancystats forecasts of doom and gloom for the 2013â14 Colorado Avalanche never came to pass, that the Avalanche posted terrible Corsi, Fenwick and PDO numbers but dodged all the bullets and still finished with 112 points, second in the powerful Western Conference, third in the entire league. In advanced stats, as in any sport, you win some, you lose some. Some victories, though, end up having a greater impact than just another two points in the standings. Torontoâs collapse, the fulfilment of the Leafsâ #fancystats prophecy, was the analytics equivalent of a franchise-defining, we-walk-together-forever, last-second win for the ages.
The truth about advanced stats in hockey is that theyâre not really all that advanced. (This from the guy who had to beg his way out of a Grade 12 math exam).
Advanced is more a relative term, given that goals, assists, points, penalty minutes and, more recently, plus-minus, have always been the
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