know,
we expect President Martin to have the moral clarity to reject the counsel of
those who will say we brought this on ourselves, or who claim that retaliation
is beneath a great nation, or any of the other echoes that persist of the
puerile sixties refrain, “hey, can’t we all just get along?”
The
answer to that question is no, we can’t, not after Las Vegas.
Martin gulped the rest of his coffee and
walked down the South Portico to the Oval Office. If the Journal ’s editorial board knew what Aaron had told him last night,
what would they call for him to do now? He was pretty sure he knew.
As usual, Bart Guarini and John Dorn
attended the daily intelligence briefing. Afterwards, Hendricks looked at the
president inquiringly. His look said, “now for Paternity. Do you want these
guys in the room?”
Martin spoke: “Bart and John, we’re going to
hear from Aaron about a scientific analysis that may help identify the bomb.
I’ve asked Bruce and Sam to join us.”
When Griffith and Yu had poured coffee
and taken seats, Martin looked around and said, “Aaron has additional
information about the bomb. This information comes from something called the
Paternity Project, which will be new to you, Bart and Sam. The NSC has had a
presentation on Paternity and after this meeting I’d like you to go to the skif
for that same briefing.”
Well,
that should make Bruce feel better, thought Rick . He knows he was brought
into Paternity before Bart.
“Go ahead
Aaron.”
“Mr. President, let me begin by
summarizing matters briefly for Bart and Sam. For more than forty years, we‘ve
been collecting, both clandestinely and openly, samples of nuclear material
from around the world. This material is for the Paternity Project, one of our
most tightly held secrets. The resulting library has given us the capability to
determine the origin of the uranium or plutonium in a bomb, either before or
after it has exploded. The Paternity analysis has already been used
successfully on three occasions, one involving tests by Pakistan and two by North Korea. When the Paks tested,
we revealed something about it to the Chinese. Las Vegas is the fourth time we’ve done this
analysis.
“Our assessment has been conducted
independently by two teams. Both reached the same result: Las
Vegas was destroyed by a plutonium weapon, and the plutonium came
from North Korea’s
Yongbyon fuel reprocessing facility. I have no doubt about that. Let me show
you something.”
An assistant handed Hendricks four
charts. He gave one to Martin and passed the others to Guarini, who handed them
around. Each chart had three patterns of vertical lines marching across it, one
above the other, apparently identical. The top pattern was labeled “First DPRK
Test.” The middle pattern was labeled “Second DPRK Test” and he bottom one, “Las Vegas.”
“These charts display the results of
spectrographic analyses of the particles collected after North Korean tests in
2006 and 2009, and at Las Vegas.
As you can see, they match.
“This is not the only evidence. Paternity
has samples of the fuel rods used in Kim’s research reactor and copies of its
operating records indicating what the isotopic composition of plutonium
reprocessed from those fuel rods would be. We ran another analysis, comparing
the isotopic composition of the Las
Vegas sample to the predicted isotopic composition of
plutonium from Yongbyon. They matched.
“There are third and fourth pieces of
evidence. They’re not as solid, but they also point to North Korea.
“This explosion was weak, as nuclear
explosions go. We estimate one to five kilotons. There’s evidence that the
uncontrolled chain reaction—the explosion—was poorly tamped. In other words,
the force of the explosion blew the plutonium apart so rapidly that very little
of it exploded. This matches what we found in samples of their test in 2006,
which was also only about six kilotons, and in 2009.
“The fourth
we expect President Martin to have the moral clarity to reject the counsel of
those who will say we brought this on ourselves, or who claim that retaliation
is beneath a great nation, or any of the other echoes that persist of the
puerile sixties refrain, “hey, can’t we all just get along?”
The
answer to that question is no, we can’t, not after Las Vegas.
Martin gulped the rest of his coffee and
walked down the South Portico to the Oval Office. If the Journal ’s editorial board knew what Aaron had told him last night,
what would they call for him to do now? He was pretty sure he knew.
As usual, Bart Guarini and John Dorn
attended the daily intelligence briefing. Afterwards, Hendricks looked at the
president inquiringly. His look said, “now for Paternity. Do you want these
guys in the room?”
Martin spoke: “Bart and John, we’re going to
hear from Aaron about a scientific analysis that may help identify the bomb.
I’ve asked Bruce and Sam to join us.”
When Griffith and Yu had poured coffee
and taken seats, Martin looked around and said, “Aaron has additional
information about the bomb. This information comes from something called the
Paternity Project, which will be new to you, Bart and Sam. The NSC has had a
presentation on Paternity and after this meeting I’d like you to go to the skif
for that same briefing.”
Well,
that should make Bruce feel better, thought Rick . He knows he was brought
into Paternity before Bart.
“Go ahead
Aaron.”
“Mr. President, let me begin by
summarizing matters briefly for Bart and Sam. For more than forty years, we‘ve
been collecting, both clandestinely and openly, samples of nuclear material
from around the world. This material is for the Paternity Project, one of our
most tightly held secrets. The resulting library has given us the capability to
determine the origin of the uranium or plutonium in a bomb, either before or
after it has exploded. The Paternity analysis has already been used
successfully on three occasions, one involving tests by Pakistan and two by North Korea. When the Paks tested,
we revealed something about it to the Chinese. Las Vegas is the fourth time we’ve done this
analysis.
“Our assessment has been conducted
independently by two teams. Both reached the same result: Las
Vegas was destroyed by a plutonium weapon, and the plutonium came
from North Korea’s
Yongbyon fuel reprocessing facility. I have no doubt about that. Let me show
you something.”
An assistant handed Hendricks four
charts. He gave one to Martin and passed the others to Guarini, who handed them
around. Each chart had three patterns of vertical lines marching across it, one
above the other, apparently identical. The top pattern was labeled “First DPRK
Test.” The middle pattern was labeled “Second DPRK Test” and he bottom one, “Las Vegas.”
“These charts display the results of
spectrographic analyses of the particles collected after North Korean tests in
2006 and 2009, and at Las Vegas.
As you can see, they match.
“This is not the only evidence. Paternity
has samples of the fuel rods used in Kim’s research reactor and copies of its
operating records indicating what the isotopic composition of plutonium
reprocessed from those fuel rods would be. We ran another analysis, comparing
the isotopic composition of the Las
Vegas sample to the predicted isotopic composition of
plutonium from Yongbyon. They matched.
“There are third and fourth pieces of
evidence. They’re not as solid, but they also point to North Korea.
“This explosion was weak, as nuclear
explosions go. We estimate one to five kilotons. There’s evidence that the
uncontrolled chain reaction—the explosion—was poorly tamped. In other words,
the force of the explosion blew the plutonium apart so rapidly that very little
of it exploded. This matches what we found in samples of their test in 2006,
which was also only about six kilotons, and in 2009.
“The fourth
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